利用新疆1978～2008年84个县市的耕地数据和人口经济数据,采用因子分析与GIS技术相结合的方法,对新疆耕地面积的时间特征、空间特征和动力机制进行分析,结果表明:①新疆自改革开放以来,耕地面积经历了波动变化,总体呈增加的趋势,但人均耕地面积呈小幅减少趋势;②各县市与全区耕地变化相比存在明显的空间差异.依据相对变化率,将新疆县市分为耕地面积缓慢增长区,耕地面积较快增长区和耕地面积高速增长区.利用童心公式,可知新疆31 a来耕地重心东移北上了97.9530 km.⑦通过SPSS13.0对影响耕地面积变化的9个因素进行因子分析,将影响新疆耕地变化的主要驱动力归为人口系统压力,社会经济因素,农业结构调整及技术水平因素.文章最后探讨了新疆耕地面积增长与波动的原因,缓解耕地压力、合理利用耕地资源方法与途径.%Based on factor analysis and GIS techniques, this paper, using the cultivated farm land and population-economy data from 1978 ～ 2008, analyzed characters and dynamic evolution of the cultivated farm land in Xinjiang in both temporal and spatial aspects. Here are some conclusions: ① The areas of cultivated farm land has showed fluctuation, but overall increasing trend while the cultivated farm land area per capita has showed slightly decreasing trend since the reform and opening-up in Xinjiang. ② There is a clear spatial difference of the cultivated farm land in each city compared with the whole region of Xinjiang. Based on the relativity change index of the cultivated farm land, we can categorize the cities to three types:slowly increasing areas, fast increasing areas and faster increasing area. Based on the gravity formula, we can see that the cultivated farm land gravity moves 97.9530 km to northeast during the past 31 years. ③ As a result of factor analysis, the 9 driving forces affecting the cultivated farm land changes are analyzed and classified into three types:pressure of population, socio-economic factors, the level of agricultural structure adjustment and technical factors.Finally, this paper studies the reasons of cultivated land of growth and volatility, providing the basis of easing the pressure and rational use of the cultivated farm land.
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