基于条件植被温度指数的冬小麦主要生育时期干旱监测效果评价Ⅲ--干旱对冬小麦产量的影响评估

摘要

选取关中平原2002-2009年冬小麦越冬后每年3-5月9旬的条件植被温度指数（CVTI）遥感干旱监测结果，基于归一组合赋权法确定的冬小麦越冬后四个主要生育时期干旱对产量影响的最优权重，建立关中平原4市（不包括铜川）冬小麦每年的加权CVTI与单产间的一元线性回归模型，并对冬小麦的单产进行了估算。结果表明，2002-2009年关中平原冬小麦单产在波动中呈上升趋势，中部单产较高，西部次之，东部最低。基于关中平原4市的整体产量估算模型预测西安市部分区县2010年的单产，取得较好的结果，验证了关中平原4市的整体产量估算模型具有较好的精度，能够较准确地反映关中平原干旱对冬小麦产量的影响。%Selected the drought monitoring results of remote sensing by the vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI)for winter wheat after the winter at the ten-day intervals from March to May of the years from 2002 to 2009 in the Guanzhong Plain,the optimal weights of drought impact on wheat yield at the 4 main stages were determined based on the normalized combination approach .A linear regression model of annual VTCI with wheat yield was established for the four cities in the Guanzhong Plain (except Tongchuan City)and estimated the yield of the winter wheat .The results showed that:The winter wheat yield presented a rising trend with fluctuation in whole Guanzhong Plain from 2002 to 2009,the yield in middle of the plain was the highest,the yield in the west plain was the second and the east plain was the lowest .Based on the whole yield estimating model of the four cities in the Guanzong Plain to forecast the yields on parts counties and districts of Xi’an City in 2010,has obtained rather good results,validated the whole yield estimating model with rather good accuracy,can be accurately reflected the impact of drought on the wheat yield in the Guanzhong Plain .