2015年,中国食糖产量同比大幅下滑,主产区种植面积显著减少,销糖量明显下滑,而产销率小幅上升；自动进口许可管理等多策并举下全国食糖进口量为485万t,同比大幅增长38.96%；在厄尔尼诺气候影响下,国内食糖减产预期与刚性成本增长支撑国内糖价震荡上行。展望后市,短期内,预期全球糖市将转为供应短缺,但庞大的结转库存仍使国内外糖价承压,2015/16榨季和2016/17榨季国际糖市转为短缺,2015/16榨季国内食糖进一步减产,食糖产业进入去库存阶段,长期来看食糖价格将可能震荡上涨,需重点关注中国糖业政策、印度和泰国等食糖主产国的天气变化、巴西糖醇政策、大宗商品走势、汇率变化以及宏观经济动态等焦点因素。%In 2015, China's total sugar production sharply reduced year on year, planting area significantly reduced in the main producing areas, sugar sales significantly decreased with sales rate rising slightly. In the context of automatic import license management and other measures to be implemented, in 2015, China's sugar import volume got to 4.85 million tons and increased by 38.96%year on year. Affected by the El Nino climate, sugar prices went upward in fluctuations because of being supported by domestic sugar production expected to reduce and rigid cost growth. In the future, world sugar market will turn into supply shortage in short-term, but huge carryover stocks will put the pressure on domestic and international sugar prices. In 2015/16 and 2016/17 crushing seasons, international sugar market will become supply shortage, and domestic sugar industry will be into the destocking stage with reductive sugar production in 2015/16 crushing season. Then during a long term, domestic and international sugar prices will possibly go upward in fluctuations, some focus factors affecting the sugar prices, such as China's sugar policy, the changes of weather in India, Thailand and other sugar producing countries, Brazil's sugar alcohol policy, market trend of commodity, the changes in the exchange rate and macroeconomic dynamic and so on, need to be focused on.
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