基于马尔科夫链模型的脉动装配线运行状态预测

摘要

分析了影响脉动生产线运行的因素和状态预测的必要性,提出了基于马尔科夫链模型的状态预测方法.基于马尔科夫链预测理论,对脉动生产线运行状态划分,确定状态转移矩阵,建立马尔科夫预测模型,并对模型准确性进行验证.%The current application of pulse production line is reviewed.The factors influencing pulse production line and the necessity of state prediction are analyzed.Then,a method of state prediction based on Markov chain model is proposed.Based on Markov chain forecast theory,the running states of pulse production line are classified.The state transition matrix is determined and Markov forecast model is established.Lastly,the validity of the model is estimated.