潜在故障期内航空发动机的剩余寿命预测

摘要

During the stage of potential failure of aircraft engine, the variation of state parameter can predict residual useful life indirectly. As for the characteristics of the stage of potential failure, this paper models the residual useful life of the aircraft engine by the stochastic filtering theory, and the degeneration data is checked for the weibull distribution by the K - M method, and then the parameters can be got by best linear unbiased estimate method and maximum likelihood estimation method. Take the example of the aircraft engine, which is during the stage of potential failure, the residual useful life is predicted. It is verified that this model should effectively predict the residual useful life, which provided the decision basis for the condition based maintenance of aircraft engine.%在航空发动机的潜在故障期内,状态参数的变化规律可以间接地预测发动机的剩余寿命.针对潜在故障期内的特点,利用随机滤波理论建立了航空发动机的剩余寿命预测模型,并采用K-M法检验发动机性能参数的退化数据服从威布尔分布,按照最优线性无偏估计的点估计方法和极大似然函数法对相关参数进行点估计,举例对某型航空发动机在潜在故障期内的剩余寿命进行了预测.模型有效地预测了航空发动机的剩余寿命,为航空发动机的视情维修提供了决策依据.