城市能量消耗对全球气候影响的模拟研究

摘要

The worldwide energy consumption in 2006 was close to 15.8 terawatts in populated regions. Although this energy consumption is only about 0.3% of the total energy transport to the extratropics by atmospheric and oceanic circulations, this anthropogenic heating could disrupt the normal atmospheric circulation pattern and produce a far-reaching effect on surface air temperature. This study identiifes the plausible climate impacts of energy consumption by using a global climate model. Results show that the inclusion of energy use at 86 model grid points where it exceeds 0.4 W/m2 can lead to remote surface temperature changes by as much as 1 K in mid- and high latitudes in winter and autumn over the most part of North America and Eurasia. These regions correspond well to areas with large differences in surface temperature trends between observations and global warming simulations forced by all natural and anthropogenic forcings. It is concluded that energy consumption is likely to be a missing forcing for the additional winter warming trends in observations.%2006年世界总能量消耗大约是1.58×1013W。这一能量消耗主要集中于人口稠密的地区。尽管这一能量消耗仅占自然界大气和海洋环流从低纬向高纬能量输送的0.3%，但当这一能量释放到大气中后有可能对正常的大气环流产生一定的影响，从而影响本地及下游地区的气温。本文使用全球气候模式对这一人类能量消耗潜在的气候影响进行了研究。结果表明，当把全球能量消耗超过0.4W的86个网格点加入数值模拟时，在北美和欧亚大陆的中高纬地区的冬季和秋季增温可达到1℃。这些增温地区恰恰是20世纪使用自然和人类强迫的气候模拟相较于实际观测有偏差的区域。因此，研究认为加入人类能量消耗可能会修正气候模拟相对于实际观测的误差。