Based on provincial panel data of 31 areas from 2006 to 2015 in China, by using spatial panel model, this article analyzed the infl uencing factors of cigarette consumption environment, economic situation, consumer's characteristics and policy. Results showed that: the regional pattern of cigarette sales gradually shifted from relative dispersion to uniform distribution, local spatial autocorrelation relationship and space positive spillover eff ect is obvious in the research period. Per capita GDP, urbanization rate, per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents and age structure had signifi cant positive impact on cigarette sales; education level and smoking control policy had signifi cant negative impact on cigarette sales. Per capita GDP, per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents and age structure had negative spatial relationship respectively. Threrefore, one need to seize the opportunity of domestic demand expanded by urbanization and infrastructure building of rural areas. It is also needed to upgrade cigarette sales structure, improve sales environment, cooperate with tobacco control work actively and get prepared for the transformation of tobacco industry in order to adapt to changes of social and economic development in China.%基于2006-2015年中国31个地区的省级面板数据,利用空间面板模型分析了经济环境、消费者特征、政策等卷烟消费环境因素对卷烟销量的影响.研究表明:总体上,在考察期间内卷烟销量的区域格局从相对分散逐步转向集中均匀分布,存在局部空间相关关系,空间正向溢出效应明显;人均GDP、城镇化率、农村居民人均消费支出、年龄结构等变量对卷烟销量产生显著的正向影响,教育水平、控烟制度等变量对卷烟销量产生显著的负向影响,人均GDP、城镇居民人均消费支出及年龄结构均存在负向空间相关性关系.为此,需要抓住城镇化、美丽乡村建设扩大内需的机遇,以结构和品质提升作为满足卷烟销售发力的关键,净化卷烟销售环境,积极配合烟草控制工作,及早制定适应国家社会经济形势的烟草产业转型发展战略.
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