农户对气候变化的感知与生计适应——基于中部与东部村庄的调查对比

摘要

The negative impact of climate change on rural householders is more direct and stronger than the effect on their counterparts in urban area,and their perception of climate change is an important prerequisite for adaptation strategies.There have been many related research studies on this subject,but very few have undertaken a typical household investigation.Furthermore,a micro empirical study based on a comparative study of rural households in different areas has not been reported.Two villages in a typical agricultural area in the inland central area of Henan Province and the eastern coastal area of Fujian Province were selected.The participatory rural appraisal (PRA) method was used,and 144 and 153 valid questionnaires were completed by central and eastern households,respectively.The structural differences in the perception of climate change and its impact,and their livelihood adaptations,are explored from the perspective of the household.The results showed that farmer perceptions of temperature and precipitation variation were direct and robust,and they had similarly strong views on the strength and the period of climate warming.However,inland farmers' perceptions were more sensitive to precipitation to some extent,and nearly half of the households attributed warming to human factors.The perceptions of human activities,such as industrial emissions,car increases,personal and family consumption,agricultural pollution,and rural construction,etc.,were significantly different between inland and coastal villages.Overall,household perceptions were lower than expected;and the livelihood adaptation strategies were diverse.These included becoming migrant workers,changing cropping patterns,constructing infrastructure,and diversifying management,etc.%相对于城市居民,气候变化对农户的影响更为直接与强烈,而农户对气候变化的感知是其采取适应策略的重要前提.目前,相关领域的宏观研究成果比较丰富,以家庭为单位的典型调查分析相对缺乏,基于不同地域农户对比的微观实证研究则更未见于报道.选择中部内陆河南省与东部沿海福建省典型农区的一个村庄作为研究样地,采用参与式农村评估法(Participatory Rural Appraisal,PRA),基于中部和东部村庄144份与153份有效问卷数据,从家庭尺度探讨内陆与沿海农户对气候变化及其影响的感知与生计适应的结构性差异.结果显示:农户对气温与降水的变化感知直接且强烈,能较一致地回顾气候变暖的强度与时期,中部农户对降水变化的感知度较强;接近一半的农户将气候变暖归因于人类因素,至于人类活动内容(如工业排放、汽车增加、个人与家庭、农业污染、农村建设等)对气候变化变暖影响的认知,中部与东部农户则存在显著性差异;农户对气候变化影响的感知不如预期深刻;农户对气候变化的生计适应趋于多样化,包括外出打工、改变种植方式、修建基础设施与多样化经营等.