复杂大系统动态可靠性与动态概率风险评估技术发展现状

摘要

复杂大系统发生故障往往会造成巨大的经济损失,乃至恶劣的社会影响和重大人员伤亡.其可靠性与概率风险评估一直受到广泛关注.如何在复杂大系统可靠性与概率风险评估中综合考虑系统的动态行为对系统可靠性与风险性的影响成为近二十多年来研究的热点,并提出和发展了复杂大系统动态可靠性与动态概率风险评估的概念与方法,本文对其概念的定义,理论与技术内涵做了较全面的综述,介绍了目前几种典型的动态可靠性评估方法,以及该技术的应用情况,能为动态可靠性的研究提供借鉴和帮助.%Complex large system failure often causes huge property loss,and even serious society influence and heavy casualties,the reliability and risk assessment therefore have been widely concerned.In the context of reliability and probabilistic risk assessment of the complex large system,how to consider the influence of the system's dynamic behavior on the system reliability and risk has been a hotspot over the past two decades,and evolved the concept of dynamic reliability and many methods.This paper reviewed the concept,the theory and technology,furthermore introduced the main dynamic reliability assessment methods and their application,and provided some help for dynamic reliability study.