随机共因失效条件下的多阶段任务成功概率评估研究

摘要

共因失效广泛存在于装备作战任务过程中,合理地对共因失效事件进行建模,对于准确评估装备任务成功概率,具有十分重要的意义.针对现有的多阶段任务成功概率评估模型中没有考虑的一类随机共因失效问题,采用隐式二元决策图法,建立了当共因失效事件的产生服从随机分布时的多阶段任务成功概率评估解析模型,并以某型火箭炮装备为实际案例对模型进行了验证.研究结果表明:所建立的数学模型可以解决随机共因失效条件下的多阶段任务成功概率评估问题,为评估装备多阶段任务成功概率提供了模型支撑;合理地任务剖面分析与建模有助于准确评估装备任务成功概率.%Common cause failure exists in the performing process of military equipment mission.The reasonable modeling of the common cause failure events is of great significance to the accurate assessment of mission success probability.A kind of random common cause failure has not been considered in the existing mission success probability assessment models for phased-mission system.The implicit BDD (binary decision diagrams) method is used to model the phased-mission success probability when the occurrence of the random common cause failure event follows a certain distribution.A real example is used to verify the validity of the proposed model.The results show that the proposed model can be used to assess the phased-mission success probability considering random common cause failure,and the reasonable modeling mission profile contributes to the accurate evaluation of mission success probability.