In order to carry out the business of pre -evaluating the influence of typhoon heavy rainfall disaster on inland area , according to the characteristic that the main negative influence of typhoon on inland area was heavy rainfall , we built the operable pre-evaluation model about the grade of heavy rainfall in the process of typhoon in Jiangxi .This model could predict the grade of heavy rainfall in the process of typhoon based on the principle which the rainfall gradually increases as the altitude rises , as well as the results of forecasting typhoon track after disembarking .Under the consideration of some factors such as the hazard -inducing en-vironment, vulnerability of hazard -affected body and so on , the pre-evaluation model about the typhoon damage was established through the statistical relationship between heavy rainfall and loss caused by the disaster .According to the data of landform , society and economy , the business product of typhoon heavy rainfall disaster pre -evaluation was manufactured , and it could realize the forecast of disaster loss in 1-km resolution grid based on GIS .The technology was carried out during the impact of typhoon No .9 (Sepat) in 2007, and better effect was acquired .%为开展内陆地区台风强降水灾害预评估业务,建立了具有可操作性的台风强降水灾害预评估模型,该模型根据台风对内陆地区的不利影响主要以强降水形式出现的特点,以江西为例,根据登陆后的台风路径预报结果,利用降水随海拔高度递增原理预测过程降水量级,建立了台风过程强降水量级预评估模型;考虑了孕灾环境、承灾体易损性等因素,通过强降水与灾害损失间的统计关系构建台风灾害预评估模型。结合地形地貌、社会经济等数据,在GIS软件平台下实现精度为1 km的格点灾害损失预测,制作台风强降水灾害预评估业务产品。并利用该技术在2007年第9号台风“圣帕”影响期间进行了业务实践,取得了较好的效果。
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