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Three essays on panel unit root and cointegration tests with structural changes.

机译:三篇关于面板单元根和结构变化的协整测试的文章。

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摘要

This thesis investigates panel unit root and cointegration tests with structural changes that are generalizations of their univariate counterparts. Small-sample properties of two well-established univariate test procedures are first assessed using the bootstrap approach. Extensions of these procedures in the panel framework are then examined.;The first chapter compares two types of univariate endogenous one-break unit root tests, namely the Dickey-Fuller (DF) type and the Schmidt-Phillips Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type tests. To investigate the small-sample properties of these tests, they are applied to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic time series with bootstrapped critical values used for unit root inference. Simulation results show that breaks under the null for the observed data are of sufficient magnitude to lead to size distortion for the DF-type tests, whereas the LM-type tests generally exhibit satisfactory size performance and possess the invariance property. Furthermore, in implementing the LM-type tests, the one that uses the minimum sum of squared residuals break selection method demonstrates better performance over the one that employs the minimum statistic break selection method.;The second chapter proposes LM type panel unit root test procedures with structural changes based on the group mean and combination test approaches. The proposed test procedures allow for breaks under both the null and alternative, and capture heterogeneity due to individual specific characteristics. The same set of distributions of the underlying individual LM statistics can be utilized to compute the panel statistics for the cases with no breaks and with intercept breaks as a result of the invariance property. Simulation results demonstrate that the inverse normal test exhibits the best overall finite-sample properties measured in terms of size and power. When break dates are unknown, the minimum sum of squared residuals break selection method is preferred. The bootstrap approach is suggested to account for cross-sectional dependence.;The third chapter studies panel cointegration tests dealing with two manifestations of structural changes, viz. breaks in the cointegrating relationship and breaks in the trend functions of time series. The importance of accounting for these breaks is highlighted using a simulation study. Finite-sample properties of the Gregory-Hansen (GH) type and LM type tests incorporating breaks in the cointegrating relationship are assessed. Two variants of the LM type tests are further examined in the presence of cross-sectional dependence taking on a factor structure. In the course of test comparison, some modifications are also suggested. A novel test procedure, based on the LM approach, is devised when trend functions of time series are subjected to breaks. Unlike existing tests, this procedure permits unknown breaks under both the null and alternative that can differ in locations among the variables under study.
机译:本文研究了面板单元的根和协整检验,其结构变化是其一元对应变量的概括。首先使用自举方法评估两个公认的单变量测试程序的小样本属性。然后检查这些程序在面板框架中的扩展。第一章比较了单变量内生单中断单元根检验的两种类型,即Dickey-Fuller(DF)类型和Schmidt-Phillips Lagrange Multiplier(LM)类型测试。 。为了研究这些测试的小样本属性,将它们应用于具有自举临界值(用于单位根推断)的Nelson-Plosser宏观经济时间序列。仿真结果表明,对于观测数据,零值以下的断裂足以导致DF型试验的尺寸变形,而LM型试验通常表现出令人满意的尺寸性能并具有不变性。此外,在实施LM型检验中,使用最小残差平方和的中断选择方法的性能要优于采用最小统计中断选择方法的性能。;第二章提出LM型面板单元根检验程序。基于组均值和组合检验方法的结构变化。拟议的测试程序允许在零值和替代项下都可以突破,并由于个人的特定特征而捕获了异质性。基础不变的LM统计信息的相同分布集可用于计算由于不变性而导致没有中断和有中断中断的情况的面板统计信息。仿真结果表明,逆法向测试在尺寸和功率方面表现出最佳的整体有限样本性能。如果中断日期未知,则首选残差平方和的最小总和作为中断选择方法。建议采用自举法来解决横截面的依赖性。第三章研究了涉及结构变化的两种表现形式的面板协整检验。打破了协整关系,打破了时间序列的趋势函数。通过模拟研究强调了考虑这些中断的重要性。对Gregory-Hansen(GH)型和LM型测试的有限样本性质进行了评估,这些测试在共积分关系中出现了断裂。在存在因果关系的截面相关性的情况下,进一步检查了LM型试验的两个变体。在测试比较的过程中,还建议进行一些修改。当时间序列的趋势函数受到破坏时,设计了一种基于LM方法的新颖测试程序。与现有测试不同,此过程允许在零值和替代项下出现未知中断,这些中断可能在所研究变量之间的位置不同。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tam, Pui Sun.;

  • 作者单位

    The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).;

  • 授予单位 The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).;
  • 学科 Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 336 p.
  • 总页数 336
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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