Longitudinal change in active life expectancy: The longitudinal studies of aging, 1984--2000.

摘要

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine trends in active life expectancy between the mid 1980s and the late 1990s, and to examine changes in disability onset, recovery, and mortality in different subgroups of the population. Two nationally representative longitudinal datasets of the population ages 70 and older were used to examine an incidence-based measure of disability in a multi-state life table program known as IMaCh.;The results suggest that there was a slight increase in active life expectancy between age-matched individuals in the 1990s relative to their counterparts in the 1980s, with gains unequal across subgroups. For example, males in the 1990s showed clear gains in years expected active relative to their 1987 counterparts. No change over time was observed for females. Larger gains in active life expectancy were observed for the white population than the black population over the same time period. There are some signs, however, that differences in disability onset by race may be gradually declining, as rates on disability onset appear to be falling slightly in the black population. There are no differences between blacks and whites in the probability of recovery from disability, and only slight differences in the probability of mortality.;Clear differences in disability onset and total and active life expectancy were observed between those with less than 12 years of education compared to those with 12 or more years of education. Individuals in the higher education group had life expectancies about 2 years longer than those of the same age with less than 12 years of education. There appears to be no convergence over time between the education groups, as neither the lower nor higher education group showed any change in active life expectancy over the time period.;The results suggest that overall there may be a slight compression of disability in the overall population of the U.S. between 1984 and 2000, however, most of the improvements are observed for males and the white population. Continued improvements may be observed if minorities and lower educated groups can gradually reduce the gap in disability incidence and mortality.