Vehicle fuel economy and vehicle miles traveled: An empirical investigation of Jevons' Paradox.

摘要

There has been, in recent decades, a concerted effort to promote energy efficiency as a means to reduce energy consumption, along the supply and demand sides. The general thesis is that, ceteris paribus, an increase in energy efficiency would lead to a decrease in the consumption of the good or service rendered efficient. This is in opposition to Jevons' Paradox which states that "It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth..." (Jevons, 1865). While many studies have applied Jevons' Paradox to various sectors to estimate rebound effects, few have examined if Jevons' Paradox holds when all available factors that could affect consumption of an efficient good/service are controlled for. This study hoped to fill that gap in literature. The study looked at vehicle fuel economy and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and examined if, all else being equal, a vehicle that was more fuel efficient accrued greater VMT. Using data from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS, 2009), a multivariate regression model was built (N = 82,485) controlling for driver, household and vehicle attributes. The findings indicated that, at the microlevel, Jevons' Paradox does hold true; a 1% increase in fuel efficiency was associated with a 1.2% increase in VMT.