Characteristics of emerging infectious diseases in the united states from 1942-2002 and effects of urbanization as a driving factor of disease emergence.

摘要

Between 1942 and 2002 Jones et al. identified 106 emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the United States caused by various driving factors. The purpose of this study is to provide a description of patterns and trends in the emergence of these diseases while gaining a greater understanding of the driving factors behind their emergence. Additionally, this study examined urbanization as a contributing factor to disease emergence. The database analyzed is from Jones et al. "Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases" where 335 events were reported globally. Additional variables were added to the dataset in order to examine urbanization effects on emergence. Nearly half of the emerging infections found were caused by bacteria while 76% of emerging diseases were non-drug resistant. Over half (57.4%) of EIDs were zoonotic with most (38.9%) coming from wildlife populations. Three main driving factors were determined to be human susceptibility to infection, antimicrobial agent use, and land use change. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship of urbanization on EID event outcome controlling for land area and the number of universities within each state. While urbanization was not significant, the number of universities in each state was, suggesting they play a critical role in detecting an EID.