Variabilite spatiotemporelle des phenomenes meteorologiques extremes dans le nord-est du Nouveau-Brunswick pour la periode 1950-2012.

摘要

The vast coastline of New Brunswick is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on its shores. This province relief is low and the terrain in this region is problematic because of the flooding and coastal erosion.;During the last century, sea level rose about 30 cm in New Brunswick and by 2100; a further rise of 50-60 cm is expected. Sea level rise is caused by the increase of ocean temperatures causing the melting of glaciers that will likely cause impacts on the cycle of events storms.;To quantify how climate change is affecting the north-eastern of New Brunswick, we will determine the recurrence of extreme events in a historical context in order to establish a trend by using different types of data and statistical tests.;Events targeted in this study are mainly winter storms and summer droughts. To do this, data from three weather stations in north-eastern New Brunswick were used: Bas- Caraquet (1982-2012), Miramichi (1943-2012) and Bathurst (1922-2012). In addition, to have a better understanding of the extreme events system, the analysis of data archives was done using two newspapers: Evangeline (1950-1982) and L'Acadie Nouvelle (1984-2012).;The results show that analysis only from meteorological data does not allow having a good frame of what is actually happening. In fact, archive can highlight up to 30% more of extreme events that have had an impact on society or on the coast and did not appear in meteorological data due to the thresholds.;Our results also show that the average maximum temperature, minimum temperature and seasonal temperatures experienced upward trends since 1982. It was found that the maximum temperatures have increased by about 2°C. Regarding extreme temperatures, our results indicate that the extreme hot temperatures have increased and extreme cold temperatures have decreased. We also note an increase in extreme rainfall during the spring and since 1982, also notes an increase in extreme rains in autumn and a decrease in extreme rainfall during the summer.