ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF COAL CHANGES AND OTHER INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT: A REGIONAL AND COUNTY INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

摘要

The major purpose of this research is to compare a regional input-output model with a county input-output model, to determine if the regional results can be used as proxies for the county impact analysis.;The methodology is a non-survey, static, input-output model. The methodology uses the national input-output tables at the 365 sectoral level. Regional disaggregate employment is used as weights to aggregate the national table into 25 regional sectors. The supply-demand pool approach is applied to construct the regional and the county input-output tables.;The study focuses on a five-county region in Southeastern Ohio. The region has witnessed a 262 percent increase in coal production during the 1970's.;Regional results are found to be unapplicable to estimate the economic impacts on the county level. In general they tend to overestimate the changes in employment and income as a result of a change in the final demand at the county level. The regional multipliers are larger than the county multipliers for all sectors except for utilities and manufacturing-machinery sectors. Also, total income and employment effects are found to be a better measure for economic impact analysis than the income and the employment multipliers.;Input-output analysis does not provide local planners with concrete results and information for economic planning and development strategies. There is a need for more information on forecasting regional final demand, environmental coefficients, and population coefficients to be used in conjunction with input-output to form a sound regional economic policies.