LIQUID FUELS FROM COAL: ANALYSIS OF A PARTIAL TRANSITION FROM OIL TO COAL; LIGHT LIQUIDS IN ZIMBABWE'S LIQUID FUELS BASE.

摘要

This study assesses the feasibility of a coal based light liquids program as a way to localize forces that determine the flow of oil into the Zimbabwean economy. Methods in End-use Energy Analysis and Econometrics in which the utilization of petroleum energy is related to economic and industrial activity are used to gain insight into the structure and behavior of petroleum utilization in that country and to forecast future requirements of this resource.; The feasibility of coal liquefaction as a substitute for imported oil is assessed by the use of engineering economics in which the technical economics of competing oil supply technologies are analyzed and the best option is selected.; Coal conversion technologies are numerous but all except the Fischer - Tropsch indirect coal liquefaction technology are deficient in reliability as commerical ventures. The Fischer - Tropsch process by coincidence better matches Zimbabwe's product configuration than the less commerically advanced technologies.; Using present value analysis to compare the coal liquefaction and the import option indicates that it is better to continue importing oil than to resort to a coal base for a portion of our oil supplies. An extended analysis taking special consideration of the risk and uncertainty factors characteristic of Zimbabwe's oil supply system indicates that the coal option is better than the import option.; The relative infancy of the coal liquefaction industry and the possibility that activities responsible for the risk and uncertainty in the oil supply system will be removed in the future, however, make the adoption of the coal option an unusually risky undertaking.