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The copper market: Structural change and cash-futures price relationships.

机译:铜市场:结构变化和现金期货价格关系。

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摘要

The world copper industry has undergone significant structural change in the last two decades. World mine output controlled by the four largest U.S. companies, for example, has fallen from 35 percent in 1966 to just above 9 percent by 1985. The principal causes for the decline in market power are expropriations by Third World governments and increasingly stringent domestic environmental regulation.;The changes in the copper market and pricing arrangements are contrasted with those in the market for frozen concentrated orange juice. Although there have been significant increases in imports of bulk concentrate, the market position of the major processors has not eroded, the futures market has not become increasingly important, and a type of two-tier pricing system continues.;Finally, the dissertation attempts to quantify the changes in the degree of price integration in the copper market. Standard models are modified to account for the convergence of cash and futures prices. However, even when modified, the results are not impressive. The marked change in price integration observed in plots and simple correlation coefficients is not readily apparent in the coefficients of the more sophisticated models. The results suggest that these models should be used with a great deal of caution.;Prior to these changes, the copper market was a segmented, two-tier market. Two futures exchanges, the London Metals Exchange and the New York Commodity Exchange, provided quotes of market prices. Copper producers, on the other hand, sold their copper based on published list prices, which for long periods differed significantly from market prices. However, with the decline in firms' market power, the number of firms using and the significance of published price lists decreased, those that remained relied increasingly in futures markets for prices, and futures markets themselves became increasingly widely used.
机译:在过去的二十年中,世界铜业发生了重大的结构变化。例如,由美国四家最大公司控制的世界矿山产量已从1966年的35%下降到1985年的9%以上。市场势力下降的主要原因是第三世界各国政府对土地的没收以及日益严格的国内环境法规。;铜市场和定价安排的变化与冷冻浓缩橙汁的市场形成对比。尽管散装精矿的进口量显着增加,但主要加工商的市场地位并未受到侵蚀,期货市场也没有变得越来越重要,并且一种两级定价系统仍在继续。量化铜市场价格整合程度的变化。修改了标准模型,以解决现金和期货价格的趋同问题。但是,即使进行了修改,结果也不会令人印象深刻。在更复杂的模型的系数中,在地块和简单相关系数中观察到的价格整合的显着变化并不明显。结果表明,应谨慎使用这些模型。在进行这些更改之前,铜市场是一个细分的两层市场。伦敦金属交易所和纽约商品交易所这两个期货交易所提供了市场价格报价。另一方面,铜生产商根据公布的目录价格出售了铜,该目录价格长期以来与市场价格明显不同。但是,随着公司市场支配力的下降,使用公司的数量和已发布价格表的重要性下降,仍然依赖期货市场定价的公司越来越多,期货市场本身也越来越广泛地被使用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Budge, Carlos C.;

  • 作者单位

    Stanford University.;

  • 授予单位 Stanford University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1988
  • 页码 178 p.
  • 总页数 178
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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