Project engineering and project management of offshore petroleum development in the Ross Sea, Antarctica: An engineering-economic evaluation.

摘要

This study speculates about the viability of Antarctic petroleum development and estimates when Antarctic oil production will become economically feasible. This analysis is based on a hypothetical exploration and development model which could require a US{dollar} 7.6 billion investment in 1992 constant dollars. Following a 20 year development period, a 30 year project, producing an initial 144,000,000 bbl per year, with a 5% decline rate is assumed. Exploration is based on a floating conical drilling unit. Production is based on a concrete Tension Leg Platform concept, with subsea completion. Storage will be in a seafloor facility and transportation will be by ice-breaking tankers.; The Ross Sea was chosen as the most promising petroleum-producing area in the Antarctic, because it has the most promising sedimentary basins, has had the most scientific exposure, and is environmentally the most favorable area.; A sensitivity analysis provided the following results: A NPV of US{dollar} 313,634,205 at a real discount rate of 10% and an IRR of 11.29% was calculated by using an oil price of {dollar}30/bbl (1992 US {dollar}). The break-even point was at about US{dollar} 27/bbl. However, in the event of an oil spill costing US{dollar}2.5 billion (constant US{dollar}) in year 19, an oil price of US{dollar} 31 would be required to make this a viable operation. At a current (1992) oil price of US{dollar}20/bbl, a production of 194,400,000 bbls per year, declining at 5% per year would be required, or capital costs would have to decline by 31%, or operating costs would have to be negative in order for this project to survive.; A decision analysis model of 90 outcomes (excluding 'no' decisions) indicated that the best alternative is a 400,000 BOPD production scenario. This is based on reduction of capital investment by US{dollar} 2.2 billion, by producing an equal volume as in the base case.; A risk analysis model, based on cumulative probabilities, indicated that a US{dollar} 15 increase in the price of oil has more impact on Antarctic petroleum development than a 75% decline in capital and operating costs combined.; The risk of this venture, with its large up front investment, spread over 20 years, makes it unlikely that such an operation will be economically feasible.