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Short-term electric load forecasting using neural network with fuzzy set based classification.

机译:使用基于模糊集的神经网络对电力负荷进行短期预测。

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This research studies a short-term electric load forecasting technique using a multi-layer feedforward Artificial Neural Network with a fuzzy set-based classification algorithm. Based on the fact that the power system load strongly depends on the weather of the serving area, the hourly data is classified into different classes of weather condition using the concept of fuzzy set representation of weather variables. Then the set of artificial neural networks for these classes of weather condition is trained and used to perform the forecasting. The load forecasting index is also developed from the application of the fuzzy logic system. The presented technique is tested with the utility's data for various lead times ranging from 24 to 120 hours. The results indicate that the technique is able to forecast the system load with excellent accuracy and its performance does not deteriorate as the lead time becomes longer.
机译:本研究研究了一种基于多层前馈人工神经网络和基于模糊集的分类算法的短期电力负荷预测技术。基于电力系统负载在很大程度上取决于服务区域的天气这一事实,使用天气变量的模糊集表示概念将每小时数据分为不同类别的天气条件。然后,针对这些天气状况类别的一组人工神经网络将被训练并用于执行预测。负荷预测指标也是从模糊逻辑系统的应用中得出的。所提供的技术已通过公用事业公司的数据在24到120小时的各种交货时间内进行了测试。结果表明,该技术能够以优异的精度预测系统负载,并且随着交付时间的延长,其性能不会降低。

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