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A fuzzy decision support system: Application to petroleum exploration.

机译:模糊决策支持系统:在石油勘探中的应用。

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摘要

This dissertation presents a new approach for handling decision-making problems when (1) the information obtained is fuzzy, (2) no voluminous statistical data are available, and (3) the decision process relies on expert's knowledge. The proposed approach is based on fuzzy multicriteria decision-making paradigm and is designed to assist managerial and strategic level decision making in an organization.;Three scenarios in the decision-making paradigm are studied: (1) single decision maker with multiple criteria, (2) single decision maker with higher-order criteria, and (3) multiple decision makers with multiple criteria. These studies employ fuzzy sets to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The decision reasoning is carried out using fuzzy logic. The framework to model a decision-making problem is first presented. The relationship among the criteria, not considered in the traditional decision-making theory, is studied and represented by using if-then rules and higher-order structures. The if-then rules are utilized to describe the criteria relationship as well as to represent expert's knowledge, whereas higher-order structures are used to distinguish prioritized criterion and important criterion.;It is noted that one of the primary issues in group decision making is the consensus technique. This research proposes a new aggregating technique that maps the confidence value or belief value to a consensus space to obtain a consensus degree of the concerned criterion. The consensus term for each criterion is thereby generated by utilizing the Dempster's Rule of Combination. The overall decision outcome yields a linguistic solution and a corresponding conformity degree.;Based on the proposed model and techniques, a fuzzy decision support system, XPROS, is constructed to demonstrate the applicability and the reliability of the approach. The input and the output of this system can be linguistic terms, real numbers, or unknown data. Several real-world test cases are used to manifest the performance of the system.
机译:当(1)所获得的信息是模糊的,(2)没有大量的统计数据可用,(3)决策过程依赖于专家的知识时,本文提出了一种新的决策方法。所提出的方法基于模糊多准则决策范例,旨在协助组织中的管理和战略层面的决策。;研究了决策范例中的三种情况:(1)具有多个准则的单个决策者;( 2)具有较高标准的单个决策者,(3)具有多个标准的多个决策者。这些研究采用模糊集来处理不完整和不确定的信息。决策推理是使用模糊逻辑进行的。首先介绍建模决策问题的框架。通过使用if-then规则和高阶结构来研究和表示标准之间的关系,而传统决策理论中并未考虑这些标准。 if-then规则用于描述标准关系并代表专家的知识,而高阶结构用于区分优先级标准和重要标准。;要注意,群体决策的主要问题之一是共识技术。这项研究提出了一种新的聚合技术,该技术将置信度值或置信度值映射到共识空间以获得相关准则的共识度。因此,每个标准的共识项是通过使用Dempster组合规则生成的。总体决策结果产生了语言学上的解决方案和相应的符合程度。;基于所提出的模型和技术,构建了模糊决策支持系统XPROS,以证明该方法的适用性和可靠性。该系统的输入和输出可以是语言术语,实数或未知数据。几个真实的测试用例用于证明系统的性能。

著录项

  • 作者

    Li, Li-Hua.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Alabama.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Alabama.;
  • 学科 Engineering Petroleum.;Artificial Intelligence.;Computer Science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1995
  • 页码 152 p.
  • 总页数 152
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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