Using a work sample to predict high-risk training success during United States Navy deep-sea diver training.

摘要

A critical-incident work sample was developed to improve the existing selection procedures and increase predictive accuracy for identifying trainees who will pass the U.S. Navy deep sea diver training program. Forty-six enlisted candidates were selected for training, 15 passed (33%) and 31 (67%) failed. A one-way ANOVA compared biographical, anthropometric, academic, and physical fitness measures between pass/fail trainees finding only the 500-yard combat swim and mask-fins-snorkel work sample to be significantly different ({dollar}p=.0054{dollar} and {dollar}p=.0008{dollar}, respectively). A hierarchial logistic regression analysis was used to test the validity of the mask-fins-work sample as a predictor of training outcomes. The existing selection model, (a) ASVAB; fail {dollar}M=111{dollar}, pass {dollar}M=112{dollar}; (b) 500-yard combat swim; fail {dollar}M=10{dollar}:{dollar}39{dollar}; pass {dollar}M=9{dollar}:{dollar}53{dollar}; (c) 1.5-mile run; fail {dollar}M=10{dollar}:{dollar}31{dollar}, pass {dollar}M=10{dollar}:{dollar}26{dollar}, was not a significant predictor (65% accuracy) of training outcomes ({dollar}chisp2 (43, N=46)=10.36, p+.0157{dollar}). Only the 500-yard swim approached significance ({dollar}Rsp2=.079, p=.0102{dollar}). When the work sample was added to the existing selection model, the chi-square change was significant {dollar}(chisp2 (42, N=46)=9.53, p=.0020){dollar} and predictive accuracy improved to 87% {dollar}(Rsp2=.084, p=.0142){dollar}.; Multidimensional aspects of self-reported anxiety and self-confidence were not significantly different between pass/fail trainees. However, successful trainees did exhibit lower somatic anxiety as recorded by heart rate telemetry during the work sample and the 1.5-mile run ({dollar}p<.001{dollar}). Cutoff scores for selecting trainees using the work sample results were calculated using the contrasting groups method and the odds for training success using the logistic regression coefficient ({dollar}beta{dollar}). Both methods produced nearly equal cutoff scores (22 and 21, respectively). A utility analysis estimated that {dollar}466,000 could be saved annually by adopting the work sample as a screening and selection procedure. Additionally, the work sample may reduce attrition by inoculating trainees against elevated anxieties associated with the stresses of performance under pressure and enhance underwater work skills when used as a cognitive affective stress management training program.