Transition from authoritarian rule in Poland and Hungary: A comparison with transition in Latin America and Southern Europe

摘要

This study examines the transitions from authoritarian rule in Poland and Hungary and compares these transitions with the conclusions of a study by Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter on Latin America and Southern Europe. The outcome of transition may be a democratic form of government or simply a different form of authoritarian rule. However, as it unfolds, transition creates uncertainty and the potential for violence. A tested framework for analyzing transition may allow informed speculation about the course of reforms, thus reducing anxieties, the risk of violence, and the possibility of a transition's premature termination.;For ease of examination, this study divides the transitions that occurred in Poland and Hungary into five loosely formed areas referred to as processes: the opening of authoritarian regimes, the influence of society on transition, the effect of liberalization on the cohesion of regimes and opposition groups, the concluding of agreements and pacts, and the convoking of elections.;These processes are compared with the processes and framework for transition described by O'Donnell and Schmitter in their earlier study. Similarities are noted in the divisions within the regimes and oppositions that allowed reformers to press for negotiations, the re-emergence of political leaders, and notably the failure of incumbent regime leaders to win in free elections. Differences include the lack of grass-roots movements and low voter turnout during follow-on elections, both attributable to intensive communist programs of social atomization and depoliticization.;The examination shows that the transitions in Poland and Hungary were themselves quite similar, with differences observed mainly in the level of worker participation and the role of the Catholic Church. Also, the negotiating tactics used during the roundtable talks that were held in both countries demonstrated a significant difference in the authority and flexibility held by the Solidarity trade union when compared with Hungary's equivalent, the Opposition Round Table.;The case studies and analyses offered in this study provide a rigorous analysis of the transitions in Poland and Hungary. They confirm, in these cases, the "generalizability" of the processes and framework described by O'Donnell and Schmitter in their study.