Taiwan's democratization and its foreign policy: The impact of Taiwan's elections on its China policy.

摘要

This study investigates how regime transitions affect states' foreign policy behavior. In particular, this study examines how Taiwan's democratization affected its foreign policy behavior toward China from 1988 to 1997. I ask whether Taiwan was more aggressive toward China as it became more democratized, as some scholars have contended.; This study starts by examining electoral politics during Taiwan's democratization. I argue that elections are the main mechanism for expressing opposing views regarding Taiwan's foreign policy toward China. As Taiwan grew more democratic, several positions, including the Presidency, opened up for popular vote. I find that as elections approach, politicians are more aggressive in their statements and actions toward China in order to win elections and take power. The frequent debate over national identity during elections created and reinforced anti-China sentiments over time. The sentiments encouraged politicians to speak in a more hostile manner toward China. Therefore, this study supports the argument that a democratizing regime is more aggressive in its foreign policy behavior.; Although scholars in international relations have recognized the importance of domestic politics, this study specifies the condition under which domestic politics plays an important role during democratization when international factors are relatively stable and weak. Before 1995, the Chinese responded mainly to Taiwan's foreign policy behavior rather than Taiwan's domestic politics. However, the debate on national identity in Taiwan's elections prompted Taiwan to further pursue its identity in the international community. Taiwan's continuous search for its own identity eventually led China to launch three waves of missile tests against Taiwan after President Lee visited the United States in 1995. The missile tests dramatically changed the dynamics of Taiwan-China relations. After the 1996 Taiwan Straits crisis, China became more influential on Taiwan-China relations, whereas the impact of Taiwan's elections decreased. Therefore, although Taiwan's elections were important to cross-strait relations before the 1996 Taiwan Straits crisis, Taiwan-China relations after the crisis in 1996 were driven by China.