The geography of political fragmentation and regional integration in the Mekong River Valley (Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam).

摘要

The first part of this dissertation demonstrates that one of the primary determinants of the Mekong river valley's unique historical trajectory has been its unique physical geography. Mainland Southeast Asia is a radial fan of river valleys, of which the Mekong is the largest and most richly endowed, but also the most politically fragmented and economically underdeveloped. This is fundamentally due to the interlocking effects of idiosyncracies of the Mekong valley's physical morphology, most prominently including its asymmetry and the lateral division between the lower and middle valley; these morphological idiosyncracies led to the partition of the Mekong valley among Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. The Mekong's political fragmentation took on economic and demographic significance in the past century and a half, as infrastructural and economic development followed the political frontiers established in former centuries.; The end of the Cold War saw three initiatives launched, the reconstituted Mekong River Commission, the Greater Mekong Subregion initiative of the Asian Development Bank and the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, each designed to promote regional integration and so to mitigate fragmentation and underdevelopment. But fragmentation and underdevelopment will themselves limit the success these initiatives can enjoy. Political fragmentation divides the Mekong between upstream and downstream countries that have different interests in river basin development; this fundamental fact will limit the powers that the countries of the Mekong valley will delegate to the Mekong River Commission. The new transportation routes sponsored by the Greater Mekong Subregion initiative will be built where they are cost-effective, which is where high existing traffic volumes justifies their cost; they will therefore reinforce existing economic patterns rather than modify them. Finally, the low institutional capacity of Laos and Cambodia, itself rooted in the fact of political fragmentation, will prevent more than modest regional trade integration along the Mekong. The new connections that are emerging in hydropower, transportation and regional trade will help integrate the economies of mainland Southeast Asia with Yunnan province and the growing power of China.