The impact of China's expanding market on the United States soybean industry.

摘要

This study investigates the impact on the U.S. soybean industry of China's entry into the WTO and of China's increasing demand for soybean meal. A multi-market equilibrium displacement model is developed, capturing the joint product nature of soybeans when crushed producing soybean meal and soybean oil. An econometric model is used to estimate the demand and supply elasticities for each region considered in the model. For different scenarios considered, the effects on prices and quantities is calculated and used to estimate the welfare effects to soybean producers in each region. Monte Carlo integration and a Bayesian approach to imposing prior beliefs are then used to generate empirical distributions for the welfare measures. These empirical distributions allow probability intervals to be calculated for the welfare measures.; The results show that soybean oil trade liberalization as set forth in China's commitments to WTO accession results in a benefit to world soybean producers of {dollar}718 million with the U.S. producers' share being about {dollar}325 million. The results also show that more domestic use of soybean meal in China culminates in a higher world soybean price and increased quantities of soybeans produced in each region with the producers in the United States gaining the largest benefit of about {dollar}240 million, of the total gain to world soybean producers of {dollar}526 million. The benefits to producers in each region, for both scenarios, are statistically significantly different from zero but are quite imprecise.