Routine, response, or rational expectations? An analysis of bilateral relations in intranational and international contexts.

摘要

This dissertation investigates the international and intranational bilateral relations between national and subnational actors in El Salvador and the United States from 1978--1992. Four directed dyads are created from a sample of three actors. Hypotheses derived from three prevalent models are tested in order to evaluate their utility in the study of interactions between actors in a variety of different behavioral patterns.; Textual data were gathered for each of the directed dyads from an on-line news source. These textual data were machine-coded using text analysis software. The process of machine-coding event data is illustrated. The resulting event data were transformed into continuous variables using the modified World Event Interaction Survey coding scheme. Ordinary least squares is employed to estimate eight statistical models. The validity of distributional assumptions in these models is explored. A variant of the bootstrap is applied to the statistical models in order to ascertain the large sample properties of the data. The estimates derived from resampling support the earlier finite sample estimates.; The majority of the hypotheses offered are supported. The interactions of the international directed dyads conform to the rational expectations model. In contrast, the interactions of the intranational directed dyads are consistent with the action-reaction model. Mixed support was found for the bureaucratic routine model. This model was upheld for only one of the intranational directed dyads. The conclusion is that the behavioral patterns exhibited between actors in a directed dyad are a function of the information environment in which they interact.