The sustainability of growth in an era of globalization: The case of the Chinese economy.

摘要

This dissertation investigates the relationships among economic growth, social development and environmental development. I identify and analyze primary linkages between these elements, ways in which improvement or deterioration in one part of the human development matrix impacts other parts. This, I maintain, is critical to an evaluation of the “sustainability” of a path of growth and human development. To establish sustainable human development, these conflicts and convergences must be understood and appreciated. Because of its enormous size and remarkable rates of growth since 1978, I use China as an extensive case study for illustrating the identified linkages, and address the question of whether China's high rates of growth are sustainable.; The study finds that while China will be able to continue on its growth path in the near term, it can do so only by deferring further the environmental costs of growth and by risking the institutionalization of income inequality. This will cause even greater difficulty for the prospects of long-term sustainability. Growth pulls many out of income poverty, but it can also expand income inequality and cause environmental deprivation. Inequality places stress on limited resources like land, and worsens environmental conditions. Environmental degradation reduces agricultural output and increases poverty.; The primary linkages come through a number of channels. Sectoral productivity and structural change have profound effects on both absolute and relative incomes. Through differing (and changing) environment intensities, they also affect the local, national and indeed the global environment. Productivity is affected by education, investment efficiency and technology, and affects not only growth and relative returns to factors, but also the environmental consequences of industrial expansion. Changes in factor availability and mobility affect growth and relative prices. Control over those factors affects distribution, but also regional development and the regional pattern of environmental degradation. Changes in the sources of demand affect sectoral growth, regional development and relative incomes. A clear understanding of these interrelationships and an appreciation for the multiple effects of change is necessary for building truly sustainable development.