An evaluation of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources Traffic Survey and alternative proposals to provide an early estimate of the firearm deer season harvest.

摘要

The Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) has used a Traffic Survey to provide an early estimate of the annual firearm deer season harvest since 1952. At the time of the survey's design hunter travel patterns in Michigan were well known and easily predicted, most of the hunting was done in the northern 213 of the state by hunters traveling from the south. Today, hunting patterns in Michigan are evenly distributed throughout the state. Given this change in hunter distribution, can the traffic survey still provide accurate estimates? Using stepwise regression procedures to derive estimates from the current traffic survey data produced total annual state kill estimates with a mean difference from the mail survey of 11.03% for the years 1987 to 1999. No data set manipulation or modification of the model selection methods produced estimates that were any closer to the mail survey for this same time period. No data set or model selection method met the level of precision desired for an initial estimate of the harvest set by the MDNR (within 5% of the mail survey, 95% of the time). If the current desired level of precision must be met, the traffic survey should be replaced with a survey that is capable of this. An evaluation of several alternative surveys including a telephone survey proposal, a survey of deer processors, and a mandatory check are also discussed.