Complex systems approach to sustainability: Beyond carrying capacity constraints.

摘要

The issue of carrying capacity has always been looked at from the point of view of a nation or region's ability to feed its people; i.e. whether a country/region has enough resources to provide the basic necessities to the population. This issue now goes beyond the examination of food and water resources; it involves the examination of other resources such as energy and human capital as well as issues regarding impact on nature—“sinks”—such as carbon emissions and global climate change.; The emergence of human capital as a dominant force in economic progress will arguably be the most pronounced characteristic of the 21st century economy. Innovative facilities of humans rather than bricks and mortar are the foundation of wealth and prosperity. Any country/region that aims at preserving or enhancing its competitive edge must focus on the enhancement and acquisition of human capital. To sustain prosperity, demographic imperative has to be considered.; Regarding resources, fossil fuels are considered not only as the most critical but also in the shortest supply of non-renewables. Furthermore, combustion of fossil fuels is the largest contributor to atmospheric change. To address the three sustainability issues—human capital, oil and climate change—and their interdependence, a family of models have been developed using real life data. The approach is based on the principles of holism, scientific integrity, transparency, and recognition of the “human dimension”. The overriding paradigm for studying “global” sustainable development is provided by the notion of complex systems derived from formal (mathematical) systems theory.; Extensive scenario analysis led to the following conclusions. Human capital deficit in developed countries, particularly the European Union, will be a major obstacle to economic progress. The issue of oil will not be when will we run out of oil but rather how precipitous will be the transition to the post-oil era. Climate change, like extinction of species, will be an irreversible phenomena and the question will be to what new level of equilibrium are we willing to adapt.