The future of nuclear power: A world-wide perspective.

摘要

This study analyzes the future of commercial nuclear electric generation worldwide using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept. The Tobit panel data estimation technique is applied to analyze the data between 1980 and 1998 for 105 countries.; EKC assumes that low-income countries increase their nuclear reliance in total electric production whereas high-income countries decrease their nuclear reliance. Hence, we expect that high-income countries should shut down existing nuclear reactors and/or not build any new ones. We encounter two reasons for shutdowns: economic or political/environmental concerns. To distinguish these two effects, reasons for shut down are also investigated by using the Hazard Model technique. Hence, the load factor of a reactor is used as an approximation for economic reason to shut down the reactor. If a shut downed reactor had high load factor, this could be attributable to political/environmental concern or else economic concern. The only countries with nuclear power are considered in this model. The two data sets are created. In the first data set, the single entry for each reactor is created as of 1998 whereas in the second data set, the multiple entries are created for each reactor beginning from 1980 to 1998. The dependent variable takes 1 if operational or zero if shut downed.; The empirical findings provide strong evidence for EKC relationship for commercial nuclear electric generation. Furthermore, higher natural resources suggest alternative electric generation methods rather than nuclear power. Economic index as an institutional variable suggests higher the economic freedom, lower the nuclear electric generation as expected. This model does not support the idea to cut the carbon dioxide emission via increasing nuclear share.; The Hazard Model findings suggest that higher the load factor is, less likely the reactor will shut down. However, if it is still permanently closed downed, then this could be attributable to political hostility against nuclear power.; There are also some projections indicating which reactors are most/least likely to be shut downed from the logit model. We also project which countries are most likely to increase/decrease their nuclear reliance from the residuals of EKC model.