The use of reliability analysis for determining the life expectancy of preventive maintenance fixes in asphalt-surfaced pavements.

摘要

The research in this thesis used a large data set of pavement performance parameters in the form of Distress Index (DI) and Ride Quality Index (RQI) to conduct a reliability-based analysis for the purpose of determining the life expectancy and evaluating the guidelines for preventive maintenance (PM) fixes.; The model developed in this research is a probabilistic model that uses pavement performance parameters, (DI and RQI). Probability distributions were developed for the following fixes over time: Non-structural bituminous overlay, surface milling with a non-structural bituminous overlay, single chip seal, multiple course micro-surfacing, and bituminous crack seal.; Reliability tables were then developed expressing the probability that a given PM treatment will not reach the performance threshold after n years. These tables provide the pavement life expectancy for a given PM treatment at various reliability levels. A highway agency can then use these tables to select PM strategies based on the expected life of the fix. In addition, the PM guidelines (in terms of DI and RQI) were evaluated using a series of two-sample t-tests as well as using the reliability approach.