A commodity-based methodology for freight forecasting on rural road networks.

摘要

This research selects, develops, applies and evaluates a methodology for forecasting specific commodity movements of freight and related truck traffic on a rural highway network. The application of the methodology involves transportation engineering and planning considerations of grain movements by truck on provincial trunk highways and roads and selected municipal roads in Manitoba.; The thesis examines the importance of regional freight forecasting in transportation applications and identifies existing models available for forecasting freight movements on a regional basis. A freight forecasting methodology based on a modified version of the traditional four-step urban transportation planning procedure is selected for Manitoba. The freight forecasting model is comprised of three steps: (1) freight generation; (2) freight distribution; and (3) freight assignment.; The selected freight forecasting methodology is applied to estimate grain movements on the Manitoba rural road network. A geographic information system platform is developed and used to construct and implement the grain forecasting model. Freight generation, which includes freight production and freight attraction, is determined for grain movements in the province. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)