Does internet information on sex offenders reduce the rate of sex offenses? An analysis of California assembly bill 488.

摘要

In September 2004, California passed an amendment that expanded the breadth of the State's version of Megan's Law, the general name for any statute mandating that sex offenders register with the local community after being released from incarceration. This amendment, Assembly Bill 488, created a website under the California Department of Justice so that citizens could search for sex offenders in any community. After the passage of California Assembly Bill 488 in 2004, the number of sex crimes in California dropped nearly 10% from 9,750 to 8,800. I estimate the differential impact that this amendment had on deterring sex crimes by past criminals and new criminals. Using multivariate analyses on all arrests in California from 2001 to 2008, the estimated odds of any arrest being a sex offense are 15.7% lower after the passage of California Assembly Bill 488 compared to before enactment of the law. The odds that any arrest for a new offender will be a sex offense are 7.1% lower compared to before enactment of the amendment. In contrast, the odds that any arrest for a past offender will be a sex offense are 18.7% lower compared to before the law. Therefore, Assembly Bill 488 deterred sex crimes, but with a stronger effect on those offenders with any criminal history than someone without a prior record. This result indicates that California's amendment increasing public access to sex offender information over the Internet has had a deterrent effect on past arrestees. While this is an encouraging effect, the legislature must continue to keep pace with advances in web technology to deter crime.