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Equity valuation, integrated investment and financial decisions.

机译:股权估值,综合投资和财务决策。

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摘要

While firm growth critically depends on financing ability and access to external capital, few papers in the literature have considered the effects of financial constraints on firms' investment decisions. Without considering the effects of managerial flexibility and resource constraints, traditional finance theory cannot be used to price the value of a company since company's operating decisions play an important role in determining the risk of the cash flows. Considering the effects of demand uncertainty and market imperfections, we analyze the interactions between investment and financing decisions, develop optimization based valuation framework to calculation the value of the company, and make operational and capital structure decisions simultaneously.; Our models first illustrate that a firm's investment decisions are affected by the existence of financial constraints, despite the Modigliani and Miller propositions which demonstrate that a firm's investment and financing decisions can be made independently in a perfect capital market. We analyze the interactions between a firm's production and financing decisions as a tradeoff between the tax benefits and financial distress costs of debt.; We also explore the relationship between operating conditions and financial leverage and observe that financial leverage can increase as profit margins reach either low or high extremes. We also provide some empirical support for this observation. We extend our model to consider the effects of agency costs on the firm's production decision and debt choice by including performance-based bonuses in the manager's compensation. Our analyses show how managerial incentives may drive a manager to deviate from firm-optimal decisions and that low-margin producers face significant risk from this agency cost while high-margin producers face relatively low risk from using such compensation.; This research further proposes an integrated corporate planning model, which extends the forecasting-based discount dividend pricing method into an optimization-based valuation framework to make production and financial decisions simultaneously for a firm facing market uncertainty. We also develop an efficient algorithm to solve the integer stochastic programming model with nonlinear constraints. Compared with the traditional valuation and planning models, our method yields higher equity valuations, indicating that valuation without considering contingent decisions is inherently inaccurate.
机译:尽管公司的增长严重取决于融资能力和获得外部资金的途径,但文献中很少有论文考虑过财务约束对公司投资决策的影响。在不考虑管理灵活性和资源约束的影响的情况下,传统的财务理论不能用于对公司的价值进行定价,因为公司的经营决策在确定现金流量的风险中起着重要的作用。考虑到需求不确定性和市场缺陷的影响,我们分析了投资和融资决策之间的相互作用,开发了基于优化的估值框架来计算公司的价值,并同时做出运营和资本结构决策。我们的模型首先说明,尽管Modigliani和Miller命题表明公司的投资和融资决策可以在一个完美的资本市场上独立做出,但财务约束的存在会影响公司的投资决策。我们分析企业的生产和融资决策之间的相互作用,作为税收收益和债务财务困境成本之间的权衡。我们还探索了运营条件与财务杠杆之间的关系,并观察到财务杠杆可以随着利润率达到低端或高端而增加。我们还为此观察提供了一些经验支持。通过将基于绩效的奖金纳入经理的薪酬中,我们扩展了模型以考虑代理成本对公司生产决策和债务选择的影响。我们的分析表明,管理人员激励机制如何促使管理者偏离公司的最佳决策,低利润的生产者因代理成本而面临巨大的风险,而高利润的生产者因采用这种补偿而面临的风险相对较低。这项研究还提出了一个集成的公司计划模型,该模型将基于预测的折价股利定价方法扩展到基于优化的估值框架中,从而针对面临市场不确定性的公司同时做出生产和财务决策。我们还开发了一种有效的算法来求解具有非线性约束的整数随机规划模型。与传统的估值和计划模型相比,我们的方法得出的股权估值更高,这表明在不考虑或有决策的情况下进行估值本质上是不准确的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Xu, Xiaodong.;

  • 作者单位

    Northwestern University.;

  • 授予单位 Northwestern University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.; Engineering Industrial.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 102 p.
  • 总页数 102
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;一般工业技术;
  • 关键词

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