The objective of this quantitative study was to analyze the influences and predictive strengths of external and internal variables on changes in the valuation of bank shares in Ghana. A non-experimental quantitative approach using multiple regression models based on the theory of Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM) was used as the research methodology and design. The population covered all publicly listed banks but with emphasis on Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) and Ghana Commercial Bank (GCB). Market to Book (M/B) ratios of banks are the criterion variables and the external predictor variables are current account balance (CAB), exchange rate ( EΔR), gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (INF), and treasury bill rate (TBR). The internal predictor variables are efficiency ratio (EFR), financial leverage ratio (FLR), return on equity ( ROE), solvency ratio (SOR), and growth in operating profits (GOP) of the banks. The results from external variables yielded R2 = 0.71, F(5,7) = 3.42, p > 0.05 for SCB and R2 = 0.31, F(5,7) = 0.62, p > 0.05 for GCB. The results from internal variables after solving for multicollinearity yielded R2 = 0.63, F(5,7) = 3.34, p > 0.05 for SCB and R2 = 0.71, F(5,7) = 4.82, p < 0.05 for GCB. Results from the combined external and internal variables after solving for multicollinearity yielded R2 = 0.84, F(7,5) = 3.80, p > 0.05 for SCB and R2 = 0.73, F(8,4) = 1.35, p > 0.05 for GCB. The R 2 showed that external variables may predict stock valuation of SCB better than the valuation of GCB while internal variables may predict the valuation of GCB better than the valuation of SCB. The author recommends: (a) the use of specific sector stock index as the criterion variable instead of the composite index; (b) that investors should put more weight on analyzing financial performances of government owned banks than macroeconomic indicators; (c) that GDP and INF are important macroeconomic factors while FLR, SOR, and ROE are important financial ratios influencing the valuation of shares in privately owned banks; and (d) further investigation on the influence of ownership and corporate governance on bank share valuation.
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机译：这项定量研究的目的是分析外部和内部变量对加纳银行股票估值变化的影响和预测强度。采用基于套利定价模型（APM）理论的多元回归模型的非实验量化方法作为研究方法和设计。人口覆盖所有公开上市的银行，但重点是渣打银行（SCB）和加纳商业银行（GCB）。银行的市账率（ M / B ）是标准变量，外部预测变量是经常账户余额（ CAB ），汇率（EΔR< / italic>），国内生产总值（ GDP ），通胀（ INF ）和国库券利率（ TBR ）。内部预测变量包括效率比率（ EFR ），财务杠杆比率（ FLR ），净资产收益率（ ROE ），偿付能力比率（< italic> SOR ），以及银行营业利润的增长（ GOP ）。外部变量的结果产生 R 2 = 0.71， F （5,7）= 3.42， p R 2 = 0.31， F （5,7）= 0.62， p R 2 = 0.63， F （5,7）= 3.34， p < / italic> 0.05对于SCB， R 2 = 0.71， F （5,7）= 4.82，p <0.05对于GCB。求解多重共线性后，来自外部和内部变量组合的结果得出 R 2 = 0.84， F （7,5）= 3.80， SCB的> p R 2 = 0.73， F （8,4）= 1.35， p R 2 表明，外部变量比SCB更好地预测了SCB的股票估值，而内部变量比SCB更好地预测了GCB的估值。作者建议：（a）使用特定部门的股票指数作为标准变量，而不是综合指数； （b）与宏观经济指标相比，投资者应更加重视分析国有银行的财务业绩； （c） GDP 和 INF 是重要的宏观经济因素，而 FLR，SOR，和 ROE 是重要的财务比率影响私人银行股份的估值； （d）进一步调查所有权和公司治理对银行股份估值的影响。
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