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Essays in Behavioral and Quantitative Finance.

机译:行为金融学和数量金融学。

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This dissertation consists of three chapters on topics in the domain of behavioral and quantitative finance.;In the first chapter, I apply the model of salience theory of Bordalo et al. (2012) to asset prices and empirically test the prediction that a stock whose expected return distribution exhibits a high (low) salience theory value looks attractive (unattractive) to an investor, hence will be overvalued (undervalued), and thus earn a lower (higher) subsequent return. To test this empirically, I follow Barberis et al. (2014), whose objective is to test the predictive power of the prospect theory value of a stock's historical return distribution. In U.S. stock market data for the period from 1926 to 2014, I find that a stock's salience theory value does have significant predictive power, but that prospect theory works better in that it renders a stock's salience theory value insignificant as predictor when a stock's prospect theory value is included as a control in a Fama-MacBeth framework. In addition, I propose a formulation of salience theory that deviates from the original formulation in Bordalo et al. (2012) in that it does not only account for the salience ranking of payoffs, but also for the magnitude of their salience. I find that this alternative formulation empirically outperforms both the original formulation of salience theory and prospect theory in terms of predictive power.;In the second chapter, I revisit the Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis (FRUH). The FRUH states that forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of future spot exchange rates. Early regressions of the log spot rate on the log forward rate supported this hypothesis, with estimates of the slope coefficient close to one. However, subsequent regressions of the log spot return on the log forward premium produced estimates of the slope coefficient that were not close to one, and often even negative. One explanation for this seemingly contradictory finding that the literature provides is a cointegrating relationship between the log spot rate and the log forward rate with cointegrating vector (1, ---1). I use a new inference procedure (IM-OLS, proposed by Vogelsang and Wagner (2011), with small-b and fixed-b asymptotics) to test this hypothesis; for the classical (small-b) case, I compare the results of IM-OLS to the established methods FM-OLS and D-OLS. The attractive feature of fixed-b asymptotics is that the choice of tuning parameters (bandwidth, kernel) are reflected in the asymptotics. To shed light on the influence of tuning parameters on the results, I execute all tests for a range of parameter combinations. I find that IM-OLS is robust to the choice of tuning parameters, and that it produces evidence in support of the FRUH. However, a nonparametric specification test (Kasparis and Phillips (2012)) strongly rejects a linear relationship between the log spot and the log forward rate, and thus the FRUH. This casts doubt on the validity of my results, as well as on the existing literature, which usually employs a linear specification.;The third chapter is joint work with Oliver Linton, Xiaohong Chen and Yapping Yi. We propose new methods for estimating the bid-ask spread from observed transaction prices alone. Our methods are based on the empirical characteristic function instead of the sample autocovariance function like the method of Roll (1984). As in Roll (1984), we have a closed-form expression for the spread, but this is only based on a limited amount of the model-implied identification restrictions. We also provide methods that take account of more identification information. We compare our methods theoretically and numerically with Roll's method as well as with its best known competitor, the approach of Hasbrouck (2004), which uses a Bayesian Gibbs methodology under a Gaussian assumption. Our estimators are competitive to Roll's and Hasbrouck's when the latent true fundamental return distribution is Gaussian, and perform much better when this distribution is far from Gaussian. Our methods are applied to the E-mini futures contract on the S&P 500 during the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010. We present extensions to models that allow for unbalanced order flow, or Hidden Markov trade direction indicators, or trade direction indicators having general asymmetric support, or adverse selection, all without requiring additional data.
机译:本文共分为三章,分别涉及行为金融学和数量金融学两个领域。第一章,我运用了博达洛等人的显着性理论模型。 (2012年)对资产价格进行实证检验,对预期收益分布显示出高(低)显着性理论值的股票看起来(对投资者而言很有吸引力)有吸引力,因此将被高估(低估),从而赚取更低的价格(更高)后续返回。为了进行实证检验,我遵循Barberis等人的观点。 (2014年),其目的是检验股票历史收益分布的前景理论价值的预测能力。在1926年至2014年期间的美国股市数据中,我发现股票的显着性理论值确实具有显着的预测能力,但是前景理论的效果更好,因为当股票的预期论性理论使股票的显着性理论值作为预测因子时微不足道Fama-MacBeth框架中将值包含为控件。另外,我提出了一个显着性理论的表述,它与Bordalo等人的原始表述有所不同。 (2012年),因为它不仅考虑了收益的显着性排名,而且还考虑了其​​显着性的大小。我发现在预测能力方面,该替代公式在经验上优于显着性理论和预期理论的原始公式。在第二章中,我将重新审视远期利率无偏假设(FRUH)。 FRUH指出,远期汇率是未来即期汇率的无偏预测因素。对数对数率对数对数率的早期回归支持这一假设,斜率系数的估计值接近于1。但是,对数现货收益在对数前期溢价上的后续回归产生的斜率系数估计值并不接近于1,甚至常常为负。文献中提供的这一看似矛盾的发现的一种解释是对数点速率与对数前进速率与协整矢量(1,--- 1)之间的协整关系。我使用一种新的推论程序(IM-OLS,由Vogelsang和Wagner(2011)提出,具有小b和固定b的渐近性)来检验该假设。对于经典(小b型)情况,我将IM-OLS的结果与已建立的FM-OLS和D-OLS方法进行了比较。固定b渐近线的吸引人之处在于,渐近线反映了调整参数(带宽,内核)的选择。为了阐明调整参数对结果的影响,我对一系列参数组合执行了所有测试。我发现IM-OLS可以很好地选择调整参数,并且它提供了支持FRUH的证据。但是,非参数规格检验(Kasparis和Phillips(2012))强烈拒绝了对数现货与对数前进率以及FRUH之间的线性关系。这使我对结果的有效性以及通常采用线性规范的现有文献产生了怀疑。第三章是与奥利弗·林顿,陈晓红和易亚平的联合研究。我们提出了仅根据观察到的交易价格来估算买卖差价的新方法。我们的方法基于经验特征函数,而不是像Roll(1984)的方法那样基于样本自协方差函数。就像在Roll(1984)中一样,我们对价差有一个封闭形式的表达式,但这仅基于有限数量的模型隐含的识别限制。我们还提供了考虑更多标识信息的方法。我们在理论上和数值上将我们的方法与Roll方法及其最知名的竞争对手Hasbrouck(2004)的方法进行比较,该方法在高斯假设下使用贝叶斯吉布斯方法。当潜在的真实基本收益分布是高斯分布时,我们的估算器与Roll和Hasbrouck相比更具竞争力,而当该分布远离高斯分布时,我们的估算则要好得多。我们的方法适用于2010年5月6日的Flash Crash中的S&P 500的E-mini期货合约。我们介绍了一些模型的扩展,这些模型允许不平衡的订单流,隐藏的Markov交易方向指标或具有一般性的交易方向指标不对称支持或逆向选择,所有这些都不需要其他数据。

著录项

  • 作者

    Schneeberger, Stefan.;

  • 作者单位

    Yale University.;

  • 授予单位 Yale University.;
  • 学科 Economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 186 p.
  • 总页数 186
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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