A Methodology for Analysis of Metroplex Air Traffic Flows.

摘要

A key determinant of the airspace capacity serving a metropolitan area with multiple airports is the extent of interaction between arrival and departure flows between the airports. The airports for some "metroplexes" are geographically located such that under certain wind and weather conditions, there exist conflicts between the flows. This results in excess costs from ground holding for departures and airborne holding for arrivals.;Advances in aircraft navigation technology (i.e. Performance Based Navigation) have created opportunities to improve arrival flow efficiencies and de-conflict metroplex flows. The adoption of these technologies has been slow and haphazard due to uncertainties in the estimates of the Return-on-Investment (ROI), the need for collaboration and simultaneous equipage across competing stakeholders, and the allocation of benefits to parties that choose not to equip but gain benefits when their competition equips. Together these issues have created a "modernization stalemate.".;The recent availability of high fidelity surveillance track data coupled with aerodynamic models and weather data have created an opportunity to provide detailed Return-on-Investment analysis of metroplex traffic flows that includes the real-world complexities of traffic flows and aircraft trajectories. This type of analysis provides accurate benefits assessment for various flow and equipage configurations.;This dissertation describes a holistic methodology that uses high fidelity surveillance track data coupled with aerodynamic models and weather data to quantify the benefits of existing and proposed concepts-of-operations and technologies that require simultaneous equipage and development of collaborative procedures by multiple stakeholders.;The methodology includes six algorithmic functions: (1) terminal area flow analysis to characterize of flow and track assignment, (2) analysis of the effects of metroplex flow conflict for arrival holding patterns, (3) estimates of the performance metrics (e.g. times, distance and fuel burn) for terminal area flows and holding patterns, (4) estimates of the benefits of PBN approach procedures at an airport, (5) estimates of the benefits of metroplex airspace de-confliction, and (6) estimates of the return on investment for the equipped operator.;A case study analysis of the benefits of the introduction of a Required Navigation Performance (RNP) approach procedure for air traffic arrival flows in the Chicago Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) is described. The analysis showed that the airspace used to service both, the Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD) and the Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW) experiences a flow conflict (13C ILS arrivals at MDW and 22L departures at ORD) on an average 1.6% of the time per year.;When the metroplex airspace is de-conflicted by the introduction of an RNP approach for 13C at MDW, the direct airline operating cost per year is reduced on an average by ;The methodology also enabled the evaluation of the introduction of additional RNP approach procedures to other runways at MDW to improve the benefits for the equipped arrivals to MDW. This has the potential of saving an average 660K gallon per year of fuel for arrivals at MDW. At ;With these accumulated savings, the RNP approach does not yield a positive ROI at MDW. The carrier at MDW will have to perform at least a half million RNP approaches per year throughout its network, saving at least 33 kg of fuel per approach on an average to break-even in 10 years at a discount rate of 5%.;This analysis demonstrates the economics behind the "modernization stalemate." The equipping airline cannot turn a positive ROI in a reasonable time-frame while the non-equipped, competing airlines (i.e. free-riders) benefit significantly more than the equipping airline. Mandating equipage is inefficient as all aircraft do not need to equip to improve the efficiencies. Government subsidies for equipage and preferential service incentives for equipage must be calibrated to the asymmetric benefits computed by this methodology.