Anticipatory policymaking: When government acts to prevent problems and why it is so hard.

摘要

Public policy analysts and political pundits alike tend to describe the policymaking process as a purely reactive sequence in which government develops solutions for clearly evident and identifiable social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances in which public policy is enacted in anticipation of a potential future problem. Whereas traditional policy concerns manifest themselves through ongoing harms and ills, "anticipatory problems" are projected to occur sometime in the future, and it is the prospect of their catastrophic impact that generates intense speculation in the present. This thesis sets out to answer the following questions: What kinds of issues on the contemporary scene fall into this category of "anticipatory"? What are the means by which such issues gain entrance onto the agenda, what forms of political conflict are they associated with, what kinds of policy actions do they prompt, and how are those policies implemented? Finally, to what extent can key patterns of anticipatory policymaking be recognized as distinctive from activity in other areas of public policy development? Three substantive topics will be analyzed in depth, from the initiation to conclusion of the policy cycle: (1) nanotechnology; (2) the H5N1 avian influenza; and (3) global warming. All are important issues with possible ramifications not only for the United States, but for other members of the international community as well. A concluding chapter also explores the role of anticipation as a tool in the continuing effort to "reinvent," or improve, the performance of government.