A simulation model for the spread of citrus greening via transmission between flush shoots and Diaphorina citri.

摘要

Huanglongbing (HLB, citrus greening) is an insect-transmitted bacterial disease of citrus trees that has impacted the citrus industry worldwide. We develop a transmission model that can mechanistically account for the rapid proliferation of infection through groves of previously uninfected citrus trees. Based on the results of this simulation model, we present a method to estimate the time from infection to the appearance of symptoms in a citrus tree. In the last section of this thesis we consider assessment of the extent to which the spread of HLB deviates from a spatial random point process in the plane. To this end, we present an algorithm for estimating the Hausdorff dimension of self-similar fractal sets using a common tool in spatial analysis, the Ripley K-function.