Shock and thaw: War and rapprochement in international rivalries.

摘要

What is the effect of war on international rivalries? This dissertation addresses the disturbing but important paradox that war can promote peace---peace in the form of rivalry termination. International rivalries---sustained, hostile interstate competitions accompanied by mutual perceptions of a risk of militarized conflict---can be costly and dangerous, in part because they are war-prone. But if war can terminate rivalries, whether through forcible regime change, the downgrading of an adversary's war-making capabilities, or other methods, war's effects are of interest to academics and policy makers alike.; In principle, wars can reveal information about the relative capabilities or resolve of rival states. In addition, wars can provide windows of opportunity for dramatic changes in the international strategic environment in which rival states interact, or in the domestic politics within one or both rival states. Through these mechanisms, war can sometimes provide the leaders of rival states with a motive to pursue rapprochement---an intermediate condition in which one or both rivals explores the possibility of a negotiated, peaceable resolution of the rivalry.; A comparative case study investigation of these hypothesized mechanisms provides empirical leverage on the question of war's effects on rivalries. A series of nested case studies focusing on the historical experiences of Prussia/Germany, the United States, and Argentina during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries demonstrates that while the hypothesized mechanisms do have empirical support, successful rapprochements rarely emerge from head-to-head wars between rival states. Rather, the empirical study---which utilizes both structured, focused comparison and process-tracing of the nested cases---shows that wars involving one rival but not both ("third-party wars") are considerably more likely than head-to-head wars between rivals to lead to rapprochement. Also, in some extraordinary cases, severe crises that do not escalate to war can act as catalysts of rapprochement.