Life Prediction,A New Science

摘要

Science means predictive power.Theories with strong predictive power are highly valued because they have practical applications.Our ancestors could hardly build up high buildings as they had no knowledge of mechanics of materials which allows prediction of the strength of a large construction from that of materials obtained from laboratory tests.The industry civilization brought huge fortunes and welfare to people with the invention of various machines.However, failures of machines occurred inevitably with the increase of operation parameters of the machines, which alerted people that durable life design of the machines are a critical issue in order to avoid catastrophic accidents.After entering 21st century, longer life design have been a common requirement in many engineering fields.Nuclear power plants, for instance, require a design life of 60 yrs (CPR 1000), the big aeroplane (C919) 30 yrs or 90,000 flight hrs, and bridges 100-120 yrs.But the problem is how we can predict the lifetime of the machines and infrastructures.The lecture will briefly review the history of life prediction.Phenomenological models based on mathematics and physical models based on failure mechanisms will be examined.The common ground for life prediction will be discussed.