Long Term Scenarios for Space Exploration Utilization

摘要

Promising opportunities for the exploration and utilization of space and nearby planetary bodies within the next 30 years are analyzed in an ESA study with the German Aerospace Center (DLR) as main contractor and Alenia Aerospazio (ALS) and Technicatome (TA) as subcontractors as well as several consultants. The technological and economic characteristics of the following SE&U scenarios are evaluated in detail: Mars Exploration, Moon Exploration, Space Solar Power and Space Tourism. Each of these scenarios comprises several high priority SE&U activities (applications) that were ranked as most promising out of initially more than 30 such activities. The study results indicate that an intensified effort in the robotic exploration of Mars could be followed by manned missions whose costs can be reduced in comparison with NASA's reference mission depending on specific mission profiles and the technologies employed. The robotic and manned exploration and utilization of the Moon represents an attractive area for increased European efforts, if a reasonable step-wise approach is implemented and sufficient political and public support can be mobilized. Furthermore, the study indicates that the attractiveness of power relay satellites and solar power satellites as major elements of future energy supply networks in comparison with terrestrial solutions depends on numerous technological breakthroughs. The various concepts of Space Tourism, as all other SE&U scenarios, primarily require dramatic reductions in the launch costs by at least one or two orders of magnitude that can be only achieved by reusable systems. However, the huge economic potential of this scenario warrants an increased investigation effort. Despite the fact that the exploration of nearby planetary bodies will retain its scientific and educational character for quite a while, various applications of space commercialization involving services and resources exploitation, can be predicted with a high level of certainty. Key capabilities and technologies that have been identified in the study and which will secure a significant level of European competitiveness and leadership in the exploration and utilization of space are the main components of a SE&U roadmap that also takes the large diversity of potential future SE&U applications into account.