CAN FROST DAMAGE IMPACT WATER DEMAND FOR CROP PRODUCTION IN THE FUTURE?

摘要

One of the most efficient techniques used to protect the buds, flowers, and fruits of apple treesrnagainst potentially damaging spring frosts, is by spraying irrigation water on the fruit trees via arnsprinkler irrigation system. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of globalrnwarming on frost occurrences for the fruit growing conditions in Québec, with the long-termrnobjective being to evaluate how this will alter amounts of water used for frost protection. Frostrninjury risk is characterized by using a phenological model coupled with a risk index generator.rnThe phenological model was selected amongst a group of models for its ability to maintain arnsatisfactory level of accuracy when tested under different climatic conditions. Based onrnmeteorological and phenological observations on apple trees in the Monteregie region ofrnQuébec, the model calibration and validations provided evidence of the ability of the selectedrnmodel to reproduce and predict frost injury risk trends. Local climatic conditions downscaledrnfrom a GCM were used to assess the effects of future climate scenarios on the risk of frostrninjuries. Under the tested scenario, the risk index increases significantly, suggesting that thernnumber and / or the severity of spring frost injuries would increase in the future. This wouldrnimply that the use of a sprinkler system as a protection method against frost injuries has to berntaken into consideration for the assessment of climate change impacts on overall water demandsrnfor crop water requirements.