Bayesian reliability growth models - A starting point for developing reliability centred maintenance procedures and reliability based design

摘要

This paper was notivated by the need for assessment of the reliability of a component which underwent modifications which were intended to improve its "reliability performances". Such a need arises currently in the dfesign of new plant and in life cycle management of equipment. The reliability engineer is faced with such problems during redesign of a component; he must "guess the future behaviour" of the modifed component, starting from the observed "behaviour of the parent component" (i.e. from the field data relative to the component before the modifications) and from expert opinions on effectiveness of the design-changes that were implemented. The aim of this study, is to supply the reliability engineer with a Bayesian model for assessing the predictive reliability of the modified component which is as simple as possible.