A mission success probability model for equipment system of warship based on the Monte Carlo method

摘要

A mission completion success probability model under given spares support for series and parallel system is established aiming at mission requirement of uninterrupted work. The numerical algorithm for the model is given based on Monte Carlo technique. The model can solve the problem of mission completion success probability calculation under the complex instance such as the component of system with independent but different distribution and the component with non-exponential withal considering worked time. Therefore, the model can apply to the mission completion success probability evaluation for equipment system of warship.