Modeling of distant futures

摘要

This paper introduces some techniques that have been found useful in studying preliminary and simple models of future developments. These techniques rely on joint model building in which many experts participate. Such joint participation has helped to eliminate most of the personal biases of a single model builder and has led to a greater degree of acceptance of the finished product. The models described here are simple. The paper concludes with a discussion of the problems encountered in making such models more sophisticated.