Estimation for Design Sea Ice Thickness near Chengdao Sea Area

摘要

Dynamic thermodynamic calculation data of sea ice thickness sincern1947 to 1996 in Chengdao oilfield is applied here to calculaterncorresponding design ice thickness. The fitting curves for thesernobservations are selected from Gumbel, Weibull, lognormal, Pearsonrntype-3 and maximum entropy distribution. Corresponding return valuesrngiven by these curves are regarded as the best design sea ice thicknessrnparameters. Based on distribution fitting tests and comprehensivernconsideration, lognormal distribution is chosen as the best fitting curvernof annual extreme data for sea ice thickness conclusively. Thenrndifferent return values can be deduced under different return periods,rnand maximum likelihood method is applied to determine intervalrnestimations of these return values. The calculated results can provide arnreference for disaster prevention and offshore structures design.