An analysis of emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Beijing based on the LEAP model

摘要

Energy consumption and air pollution,greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are closely related,it is inevitable to control and reduction of multiple air pollution and GHG by optimization the structure energy consumption.Combined energy consumption structure and demand with long-term development planning of Beijing,this research set two scenarios which included low,medium energy saving and pollution reduction policies respectively.Then the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model was applied to predict the reduction effect of chief atmospheric pollutants and GHG in 2010-2020 under two scenarios.The results of the study show that energy consumption can be optimized through the policy of energy-saving and emission reduction and environment protection,and up to 2020,Beijing energy demand will reduce by 10 million tons of coal equivalents.Under the energy scenario with moderate restrictions,the anticipated emissions of SO2,NOx,PM10,PM2.5 will be respectively reduced to 10.02,21.87,13.38,9.60 ten thousand tons.Compared with the same period time under low scenario,air pollutants will reduce by 53％,50％,33％ and 25％ respectively.Beijing city should focus on adjusting the structure of energy consumption in industry,service and transport department,which can effectively relieve the energy supply pressure and remarkably reduce emission of chief air pollutants and GHG,evidently improve the environmental air quality,it has significant multiple positive effect to the long-term energy environment construction.